Friday, June 3, 2011

Semifinal preview

Whereas the women's tournament is a free-for-all shoot out, the top four men's seeds have advanced to the semifinals of this year's French Open. Nadal will square off against Murray, then Djokovic will face Federer.

Sweet.

Though it hardly needs to be reaffirmed who are the four best players in the world, this is a powerful statement for the world of men's tennis. The order shifts from time to time, but these four continue to separate themselves from the rest of the pack.

This is exactly what's expected of the top four in a Grand Slam, and in this particular case, you cannot ask for better match ups.

Murray, the only major-less of the group, is the surprise of the tournamen. Murray has now made the semifinals or better of all four majors, something I'm not sure I ever thought he'd be able to claim.

Normally I would not give the Scot a chance in hell to beat Nadal on clay. He is clearly the underdog against the five-time champion, but Nadal has not definitely not been on the top of his game throughout the tournament. Murray has earned some major credibility points in the last couple of months. He came closest of anyone to beating Novak Djokovic in a terrific match in Rome, and prevailed in some tough matches in Paris despite a torn ligament in his ankle. I think Murray would have to play the match of his life to knock off Nadal, but if he can simply maintain the form he's shown all week, he could definitely take a set or two. Nadal did not look right until a nice straight sets win over Soderling in the quarterfinals. He might be hitting his stride just at the right time but if there's any drop off, look out.

The more intriguing match is definitely Djokovic against Federer. The Serb, who is still undefeated in 2011, has marched through the draw mostly untroubled as everyone expected him to do. As though he needed more to go his way, his quarterfinal opponent Fabio Fognini disappointingly withdrew from their match with an injury. So Djokovic has not played since Sunday, though I seriously doubt that rust will be an issue. Djokovic is experienced enough to handle it and he's shown that he's mentally tough enough to stay focused despite a long layoff in the middle of a Grand Slam. Federer, on the other hand, has stayed totally under the radar but is the only semifinalist not to have lost a set. Certainly, Djokovic is two steps above any of the other opponents he's faced thus far, but there are worse things than entering a really difficult match with your game working on all cylinders.

Djokovic clearly has the edge, having beaten Federer in all three matches they've played this year. Odd to say this, but it would be an upset if Federer were to get the win here, which I think would have to happen in five sets. Before this year, Federer could remain steadfast in his game and expect Djokovic to falter. No more. If Federer is to win this match he has to be considerably more aggressive than he typically plays. Federer's normal style of working a point and waiting for the perfect shot to hit simply won't work against Djokovic. The longer a rally goes, the more it favors Djokovic who can also unexpectedly hit a winner from anywhere on court. Federer can put his foot on the accelerator to close out a set, but whether he can maintain going toe-to-toe from the baseline with the fitter and faster Djokovic in a best of five is another issue.

All that being said, it's Federer. It's a rare Grand Slam semifinal where he is the underdog and has no obvious advantages over his opponent. I don't expect that the occasion of the moment will have much effect on Djokovic. But you cannot count out experience.

Here's hoping for a couple of grudge matches.

0 comments: