Well, that was fun.
As though Rafa Nadal needed any other way to establish himself as a hero in Spain, he did it again Sunday by scraping past a determined Juan Martin del Potro in the fourth rubber, 1-6 6-4 6-1 7-6(0).
Delpo seems to be a glutton for drama as this is the second match he's played this weekend that had so many twists and turns that it was never clear who would win until the last few minutes. Just like his match against Ferrer, this match was achingly close. The big man showed no obvious signs of fatigue on the outset as he unleashed one big shot after another to reduce Nadal to a mere clay court mortal. In what might have been the longest 6-1 set ever, Nadal helped out the big man by not holding his serve until the second set. It took a while but Nadal eventually found his range and turned the tide, taking the next two sets, 6-4, 6-1.
The fourth set was a roller coaster, as Nadal's service woes continued. He repeatedly broke delPo's serve only to see the big man erase the advantage in the very next game. Delpo's power got the better of the Spaniard and he was rewarded with the opportunity to take the match to a decisive fifth set, serving at 5-3. But Nadal broke serve again and reeled off three straight games to put the championship on his racket at 6-5. Yet again, the big man wouldn't go quietly, broke serve and forced a tiebreak.
In the tiebreak, Delpo finally seemed to run out of juice and put up little resistance while Nadal stepped up his game and swept the breaker, seven points to zero, sealing it with a forehand winner and giving his country its fifth Davis Cup title since 2000.
On one hand, Nadal deserves a ton of credit. He clearly did not play his best match Sunday, but he hung in there to give himself a chance and take advantage of any openings Delpo offered. For much of the match, he was not in the driver's seat to win, an inconceivable concept in a best-of-five match on clay in Spain. In the end, his experience and gritty nature helped him get the better of a dangerous opponent, just as David Ferrer did on Friday.
On the other hand, what a disappointing weekend this has been for del Potro. He truly gave everything he had in both matches, reminding us why he reached number 4 in the world two years ago. Delpo did not drop the ball here, but rather got outpunched by two more experienced and notoriously tenacious competitors. Still, these are two devastating losses for the big man, who was reduced to tears after both defeats. Both of those matches could have easily gone the other way, giving Argentina a 3-1 victory.
Whew! What a ride. The tension in the arena grew exponentially as the momentum seemed to shift every few minutes. The chair umpire even issued a warning to the fans for refusing to quiet down when the players were ready to resume. The scoreline makes it look like a more comprehensive victory for Spain than what played out on the courts, because it was never clear that the fifth rubber wouldn't be necessary until Nadal had the 5-0 lead in the tiebreak. Who knows what could have happened if Ferrer had to square off against Nalbandian. Sheesh.
Now the what-ifs. Delpo's efforts were nothing short of heroic, but why did Tito Vazquez put Juan Monaco in singles instead of David Nalbandian? I'm not sure it would have made a difference, but I have to think Nalby would have put up a tougher fight than what Monaco was able to achieve. Even if Nalby hadn't won, perhaps he could have worn down Nadal enough that he'd have less in the tank to face Delpo. It seems a shame that Nalby never got the opportunity to put the tie on his racket alone, despite his terrific play in doubles. There's no way Monaco would have player Ferrer in a live fifth rubber, so why not slate Nalby for singles and Monaco or Chela for doubles? Eh, who knows.
In any case, what a great end to the season. Both sides were extraordinary, but in the end, the tie swung in favor of the team with the two top-five singles players who have still yet to lose a Davis Cup rubber on clay throughout their careers. This was a great way for Nadal to rebound from a disappointing ATP finals performance and it's icing on the cake of a terrific year for the underrated Ferrer. Again the Davis Cup ends in disappointment for Argentina but if there's a silver lining here, it's that Delpo played really well and looks to be on the cusp of reclaiming his rightful place among the top ten in the world. Remember, that he started the season ranked outside the top 400 in the world and finished at number 11. Here's hoping the man stays healthy. It's been a long road back, and he's almost there.
Meanwhile, Nadal has already announced that he won't be playing the competition in 2012 because he wants to focus on the Olympics in London. Ferrer also made comments hinting that the no one in current line-up will be available next year for the same reasons, saying that it will be difficult to get them all on the team again. (That, and the fact that Albert Costa would have to be pretty desperate to name the struggling Verdasco to the team anyway, IMHO).
Nicolas Almagro, come on down.
Until 2012!
Sunday, December 4, 2011
Saturday, December 3, 2011
Davis Cup, Day 2
Here's what we know:
David Nalbandian, who is prepared to lead his underdog team to a Davis Cup title by sheer force of will, is a fierce competitor and still one hell of a player, rankings be damned.
Albert Costa would have to be off his rocker if he slates Feliciano Lopez and Fernando Verdasco to play doubles in Davis Cup ever again. He might also be nuts if he continues to put Verdasco on the team at all.
Fernando Verdasco has no mojo left and he is quickly regressing into a terrific talent but a miserable headcase.
All that to say that Argentina took advantage of some truly awful play by the experienced Spaniards to take the doubles point in straight sets. Not to diminish the Argentines, however. Nalbandian and Schwank played really well, calmly shooting down any opening the Spaniards had and relentlessly exposing their weaknesses.
Seriously, unless something changes dramatically, Saturday may have been the last time the Spanish BFFs ever play a Davis Cup doubles match together. They had absolutely no rhythm and their strategy, assuming they had one, was all over the place. It was one thing that they had such a tough time in the semifinals in Cordoba. But to do it again in the finals? Fool me once...
It's not like Spain has an obvious doubles pairing on deck, but they clearly need to try something else. Verdasco, much as it pains me to say it, has worn out his usefulness for the team. He has zero confidence. You can't use him in singles and he's lost the last three Davis Cup doubles rubbers with two different partners. Lopez' form is better, so I'd keep him around. But maybe you pair him with Marcel Granollers. Oh, and lest we forget, Spain has another perfectly decent player in Nicolas Almagro. Why Costa hasn't given him a chance to play after the year he's had baffles me. Even Nadal is a better doubles player than anyone else Spain fields, but he understandably needs to be saved for singles.
On that note, it falls to Nadal to be the hero and clinch the tie for Spain. Del Potro meanwhile is tasked with keeping Argentina alive and giving Nalbandian a chance to win the title he so desperately covets. (I write that assuming that Nalbandian will replace Monaco to go against Ferrer, if there is a live fifth rubber).
I've already made my position known on this. I think the doubles win for Argentina is just delaying the inevitable. For all the talk about Nadal's supposed fatigue, he showed no signs of it on Friday. He did the same thing after losing the US Open finals against Djokovic: He immediately went to Cordoba and dominated both of his matches to give Spain a pass into the finals. I don't think tomorrow will be any different. DelPo is Argentina's best chance to trouble Nadal. But if the weeks of rest didn't afford the big man enough energy to pull out the grinder against Ferrer, I cannot imagine that he'll have enough in the tank to go toe-to-toe with Nadal after one day to recuperate. Plus, Nadal only spent two hours on court in thrashing Monaco. I take Nadal in straight sets to give Spain yet another Davis Cup title.
But let's say for the sake of conversation that I'm wrong and delPo pulls off the upset. Then we'll have Ferrer and Nalbandian. After the Spainard curses his teammates for making him have to play again, I see another tough match in his future, but still ends GSM in the Spaniard's favor. Nalby will be no slouch, but I don't think the former World No. 3 has enough match play to hold up against Ferrer. The obvious ex-factor will be if Nalby can keep Iron Man out there long enough that his batteries run down. Maybe. But I'm not sure I've ever seen Ferrer lose a match simply because he was tired. I think the longer the match goes, the more it favors Ferrer, not Nalby. Still, anything can happen in a for-all-the-marbles match and it would be fun to watch--if it got to that point, which it won't.
David Nalbandian, who is prepared to lead his underdog team to a Davis Cup title by sheer force of will, is a fierce competitor and still one hell of a player, rankings be damned.
Albert Costa would have to be off his rocker if he slates Feliciano Lopez and Fernando Verdasco to play doubles in Davis Cup ever again. He might also be nuts if he continues to put Verdasco on the team at all.
Fernando Verdasco has no mojo left and he is quickly regressing into a terrific talent but a miserable headcase.
All that to say that Argentina took advantage of some truly awful play by the experienced Spaniards to take the doubles point in straight sets. Not to diminish the Argentines, however. Nalbandian and Schwank played really well, calmly shooting down any opening the Spaniards had and relentlessly exposing their weaknesses.
Seriously, unless something changes dramatically, Saturday may have been the last time the Spanish BFFs ever play a Davis Cup doubles match together. They had absolutely no rhythm and their strategy, assuming they had one, was all over the place. It was one thing that they had such a tough time in the semifinals in Cordoba. But to do it again in the finals? Fool me once...
It's not like Spain has an obvious doubles pairing on deck, but they clearly need to try something else. Verdasco, much as it pains me to say it, has worn out his usefulness for the team. He has zero confidence. You can't use him in singles and he's lost the last three Davis Cup doubles rubbers with two different partners. Lopez' form is better, so I'd keep him around. But maybe you pair him with Marcel Granollers. Oh, and lest we forget, Spain has another perfectly decent player in Nicolas Almagro. Why Costa hasn't given him a chance to play after the year he's had baffles me. Even Nadal is a better doubles player than anyone else Spain fields, but he understandably needs to be saved for singles.
On that note, it falls to Nadal to be the hero and clinch the tie for Spain. Del Potro meanwhile is tasked with keeping Argentina alive and giving Nalbandian a chance to win the title he so desperately covets. (I write that assuming that Nalbandian will replace Monaco to go against Ferrer, if there is a live fifth rubber).
I've already made my position known on this. I think the doubles win for Argentina is just delaying the inevitable. For all the talk about Nadal's supposed fatigue, he showed no signs of it on Friday. He did the same thing after losing the US Open finals against Djokovic: He immediately went to Cordoba and dominated both of his matches to give Spain a pass into the finals. I don't think tomorrow will be any different. DelPo is Argentina's best chance to trouble Nadal. But if the weeks of rest didn't afford the big man enough energy to pull out the grinder against Ferrer, I cannot imagine that he'll have enough in the tank to go toe-to-toe with Nadal after one day to recuperate. Plus, Nadal only spent two hours on court in thrashing Monaco. I take Nadal in straight sets to give Spain yet another Davis Cup title.
But let's say for the sake of conversation that I'm wrong and delPo pulls off the upset. Then we'll have Ferrer and Nalbandian. After the Spainard curses his teammates for making him have to play again, I see another tough match in his future, but still ends GSM in the Spaniard's favor. Nalby will be no slouch, but I don't think the former World No. 3 has enough match play to hold up against Ferrer. The obvious ex-factor will be if Nalby can keep Iron Man out there long enough that his batteries run down. Maybe. But I'm not sure I've ever seen Ferrer lose a match simply because he was tired. I think the longer the match goes, the more it favors Ferrer, not Nalby. Still, anything can happen in a for-all-the-marbles match and it would be fun to watch--if it got to that point, which it won't.
Davis Cup , Day 1
Wow, what a great day of tennis in Seville on Friday, which ended with home favorites Spain taking a crucial 2-0 lead over Argentina. It's not just the 0-2 deficit, but the way Argentina went down that makes it highly improbable the visitors can come back to win the tie.
There was very little surprise in the first rubber, as Rafael Nadal creamed his buddy Juan Monaco, 6-1, 6-1, 6-2. Poor Monaco never had a chance from the moment the draw was announced and the King of Clay made it clear from the get-go. There were several amazing, entertaining points that predictably went in Nadal's favor and Monaco wondering, "What do I have to do to win even a point against this guy?" I do not think that Argentina could have fielded anyone that would have accomplished anything against Nadal, but it was hard to watch this and not feel that Argentina kind of threw Monaco to the dogs.
But as expected, Ferrer v. del Potro was considerably more complicated. The two treated the crowd to a long, grinding, topsy-turvy contest with so many momentum swings that it was never clear who was going to win until the last 20 minutes. But in the end, scrappy Ferrer pulled out a 6-2, 6-7, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 victory in 4 hours and 45 minutes, leaving del Potro dejected, exhausted and in tears.
When Ferrer went down two sets to one, it was not looking good. His strategy of pounding delPo's backhand wasn't working nearly as well and delPo started unleashing on his forehand. But Ferrer toughed out the fourth set after delPo hit two forehand errors and double faulted on set point, then raced to a 5-1 lead in the fifth set while delPo clearly succumbed to fatigue. Delpo broke back to force Ferrer to serve for the match again a 5-3, but Ferrer shut the door with a forehand winner on match point and collapsed to his knees in delight.
I have to say, Ferrer never fails to amaze. I'm going start calling him Iron Man. I predicted that this match would go the distance and picked delPo to pull it out because of the bigger groundstrokes that were getting the better of Ferrer in sets two and three. But the man just doesn't give up. I thought that the longer the match went, the more it would favor delPo because he hasn't played nearly as much. But Ferrer is indefatigable. No matter how tired he says he is afterwards, he will fight until the death. He's the most underrated player in the top 10, IMHO.
This is best start Spain could have hoped for, but it's certainly not a foregone conclusion that Spain will wrap this up on Saturday. As strong as their singles players are, their doubles team is particularly vulnerable and Verdasco stands out as the weakest link. In the semifinals against France, Lopez/Verdasco played an awful match where both were making uncharacteristic mistakes and the teammates stopped speaking in between the points for a time.
I think if the Spaniards can step up their form, they can win this match in four sets. But stepping up your form when you haven't been playing well is very difficult, and it's particularly challenging if your partner is also struggling. This is Argentina's best chance to get into this tie, because delPo has even less of a chance to beat Nadal tomorrow after being dragged through a nearly five hour match. I'm going to be bold and call Argentina for a win today, mainly because I feel confidence will fail the Spaniards just enough to give the Argentines opportunity. I do not think Lopez/Verdasco have the rhythm and flow they need to pull this out. However, I think Argentina is simply delaying the inevitable because Nadal, who spent just over two hours on court Friday, ain't losing to anyone on court on Sunday.
There was very little surprise in the first rubber, as Rafael Nadal creamed his buddy Juan Monaco, 6-1, 6-1, 6-2. Poor Monaco never had a chance from the moment the draw was announced and the King of Clay made it clear from the get-go. There were several amazing, entertaining points that predictably went in Nadal's favor and Monaco wondering, "What do I have to do to win even a point against this guy?" I do not think that Argentina could have fielded anyone that would have accomplished anything against Nadal, but it was hard to watch this and not feel that Argentina kind of threw Monaco to the dogs.
But as expected, Ferrer v. del Potro was considerably more complicated. The two treated the crowd to a long, grinding, topsy-turvy contest with so many momentum swings that it was never clear who was going to win until the last 20 minutes. But in the end, scrappy Ferrer pulled out a 6-2, 6-7, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 victory in 4 hours and 45 minutes, leaving del Potro dejected, exhausted and in tears.
When Ferrer went down two sets to one, it was not looking good. His strategy of pounding delPo's backhand wasn't working nearly as well and delPo started unleashing on his forehand. But Ferrer toughed out the fourth set after delPo hit two forehand errors and double faulted on set point, then raced to a 5-1 lead in the fifth set while delPo clearly succumbed to fatigue. Delpo broke back to force Ferrer to serve for the match again a 5-3, but Ferrer shut the door with a forehand winner on match point and collapsed to his knees in delight.
I have to say, Ferrer never fails to amaze. I'm going start calling him Iron Man. I predicted that this match would go the distance and picked delPo to pull it out because of the bigger groundstrokes that were getting the better of Ferrer in sets two and three. But the man just doesn't give up. I thought that the longer the match went, the more it would favor delPo because he hasn't played nearly as much. But Ferrer is indefatigable. No matter how tired he says he is afterwards, he will fight until the death. He's the most underrated player in the top 10, IMHO.
This is best start Spain could have hoped for, but it's certainly not a foregone conclusion that Spain will wrap this up on Saturday. As strong as their singles players are, their doubles team is particularly vulnerable and Verdasco stands out as the weakest link. In the semifinals against France, Lopez/Verdasco played an awful match where both were making uncharacteristic mistakes and the teammates stopped speaking in between the points for a time.
I think if the Spaniards can step up their form, they can win this match in four sets. But stepping up your form when you haven't been playing well is very difficult, and it's particularly challenging if your partner is also struggling. This is Argentina's best chance to get into this tie, because delPo has even less of a chance to beat Nadal tomorrow after being dragged through a nearly five hour match. I'm going to be bold and call Argentina for a win today, mainly because I feel confidence will fail the Spaniards just enough to give the Argentines opportunity. I do not think Lopez/Verdasco have the rhythm and flow they need to pull this out. However, I think Argentina is simply delaying the inevitable because Nadal, who spent just over two hours on court Friday, ain't losing to anyone on court on Sunday.
Friday, December 2, 2011
Davis Cup preview
The finale to the 2011 ATP season is upon us, as Spain and Argentina face off in Seville for the Davis Cup title. In a rematch of the 2008 final, Spain is looking to capture its fifth title since 2000 while perennial bridesmaids Argentina look to capture its first title after falling in the finals three times.
Much has been made of the fact that the last time these two squared off, Spain upset Argentina in Mar del Plata even without Rafael Nadal. As well as the Spaniards stepped up in a difficult situation, the Argentines have admitted that bitter internal strife contributed to their disappointing effort. The Spaniards still relish winning the title on Argentina's turf, and it's not a stretch to believe that the Argentines, with 2008 team members David Nalbandian and Juan Martin del Potro, would love nothing more than to return the favor.
Home team Spain must be considered the favorites mostly because they are led by Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer, both of whom are undefeated in Davis Cup on clay. BFF's Feliciano Lopez and Fernando Verdasco will team up for doubles. But Argentina, led by 2009 US Open champion Juan Martin del Potro, will not be a pushover. I could definitely see this tie coming down to the fifth rubber. Here are the line-ups, which were announced on Thursday.
1: Nadal v. Juan Monaco
2: Ferrer v. del Potro
3: Lopez/Verdasco v. Nalbandian/Schwank
4: Nadal v. del Potro
5: Ferrer v. Monaco
Captain Tito Vazquez' choice to use the in-form Monaco in singles instead of the declining but experienced Nalbandian certainly surprised me. But many feel that if the tie comes down to the final match, Nalbandian will take Monaco's place against Ferrer.
In any case, as well as Monaco has played in the last few months, I cannot see him having much of a chance against Nadal on clay in a best of five. Certainly, there are no sure things in Davis Cup but we're talking about the most accomplished clay court player ever to pick up a racquet. Even a fatigued Nadal can beat just about anyone on clay, anytime. Point to Spain.
After that, it gets very complicated. The always underrated Ferrer is best on clay, as the long, grinding points suit his style perfectly. After sitting out the first round against Belgium with an injury, Ferrer stepped up to give the team two points in singles against the USA and an impressive win over France's Gilles Simon in the semifinals. But lest we forget, delPo is a former 2009 French Open semifinalist. He's a bigger guy with a bigger serve and harder groundstrokes than the scrappy Spaniard. Both will be extremely motivated so that match will be a battle of wills. Ferrer has had the better year but could be somewhat fatigued after a long week in London. Delpo has not played a competitive match in several weeks, choosing to focus his energies on this tie, so he may be physically fresher but slightly out of practice. That match will be very close but I'm going to be bold and tip delPo to win in five (with the caveat that Ferrer winning would not surprise me in the slightest). Point to Argentina.
In any case, I think Argentina should be thrilled if they go to sleep 1-1 on Day 1, because this doubles match is wide open. Lopez/Verdasco are a formidable team but the shellacking they took in the semifinals at the hands of Tsonga and Llodra cannot be overlooked. As that match demonstrated, they can either be really good or really bad. Both Spaniards tend to lose focus mentally when things aren't going their way, which is problematic in singles and catastrophic in doubles. Nalbandian and Schwank have never played together but both have stellar doubles records in Davis Cup. If the Spaniards show the same form that saw them clinch the doubles point in 2008 and 2009, then I like their chances. But this could be a great opportunity for the Argentines to take advantage of a decent team whose recent form leaves a lot to be desired. I cannot predict the outcome on this one.
If we get to Nadal v. del Potro, that will be exciting. Nadal's high bounces and spin don't bother the 6'6" Argentine as much as other players, but I still don't see delPo winning this. Nadal in four sets. Point to Spain.
If there is a fifth rubber and it is Ferrer v. Monaco, then that's an easy choice: Ferrer gets to be the hero and finish a great year on an unbelievable high. But I cannot imagine that Tito Vazquez would pin the country's hopes on Monaco, despite his good form and recent win over the Spaniard. I have to think he'd bring in Nalbandian, himself a former French Open semifinalist. Nevertheless I still don't see Argentina getting that point. Experience counts in these situations, which is why Nalbandian could be the better choice, but form matters, too, and I think Ferrer's relentlessness will wear down Nalbandian. Point to Spain.
This tie could easily end 3-2, but in the best of situations, I don't see Argentina getting three points here. I can see delPo edging Ferrer and the Argentines winning doubles, but I don't see anyone getting a point against Rafa, nor do I see Monaco or Nalbandian beating Ferrer in a decider. Rafa may not have had the best year, is admittedly tired and has taken some gut checks to his confidence. But you know what? Competing with your teammates on the sidelines is a different deal and with all due respect to the Argentines, it's not Djokovic on the other side of the net.
My prediction: Spain wins its fifth title, 3-1.
Much has been made of the fact that the last time these two squared off, Spain upset Argentina in Mar del Plata even without Rafael Nadal. As well as the Spaniards stepped up in a difficult situation, the Argentines have admitted that bitter internal strife contributed to their disappointing effort. The Spaniards still relish winning the title on Argentina's turf, and it's not a stretch to believe that the Argentines, with 2008 team members David Nalbandian and Juan Martin del Potro, would love nothing more than to return the favor.
Home team Spain must be considered the favorites mostly because they are led by Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer, both of whom are undefeated in Davis Cup on clay. BFF's Feliciano Lopez and Fernando Verdasco will team up for doubles. But Argentina, led by 2009 US Open champion Juan Martin del Potro, will not be a pushover. I could definitely see this tie coming down to the fifth rubber. Here are the line-ups, which were announced on Thursday.
1: Nadal v. Juan Monaco
2: Ferrer v. del Potro
3: Lopez/Verdasco v. Nalbandian/Schwank
4: Nadal v. del Potro
5: Ferrer v. Monaco
Captain Tito Vazquez' choice to use the in-form Monaco in singles instead of the declining but experienced Nalbandian certainly surprised me. But many feel that if the tie comes down to the final match, Nalbandian will take Monaco's place against Ferrer.
In any case, as well as Monaco has played in the last few months, I cannot see him having much of a chance against Nadal on clay in a best of five. Certainly, there are no sure things in Davis Cup but we're talking about the most accomplished clay court player ever to pick up a racquet. Even a fatigued Nadal can beat just about anyone on clay, anytime. Point to Spain.
After that, it gets very complicated. The always underrated Ferrer is best on clay, as the long, grinding points suit his style perfectly. After sitting out the first round against Belgium with an injury, Ferrer stepped up to give the team two points in singles against the USA and an impressive win over France's Gilles Simon in the semifinals. But lest we forget, delPo is a former 2009 French Open semifinalist. He's a bigger guy with a bigger serve and harder groundstrokes than the scrappy Spaniard. Both will be extremely motivated so that match will be a battle of wills. Ferrer has had the better year but could be somewhat fatigued after a long week in London. Delpo has not played a competitive match in several weeks, choosing to focus his energies on this tie, so he may be physically fresher but slightly out of practice. That match will be very close but I'm going to be bold and tip delPo to win in five (with the caveat that Ferrer winning would not surprise me in the slightest). Point to Argentina.
In any case, I think Argentina should be thrilled if they go to sleep 1-1 on Day 1, because this doubles match is wide open. Lopez/Verdasco are a formidable team but the shellacking they took in the semifinals at the hands of Tsonga and Llodra cannot be overlooked. As that match demonstrated, they can either be really good or really bad. Both Spaniards tend to lose focus mentally when things aren't going their way, which is problematic in singles and catastrophic in doubles. Nalbandian and Schwank have never played together but both have stellar doubles records in Davis Cup. If the Spaniards show the same form that saw them clinch the doubles point in 2008 and 2009, then I like their chances. But this could be a great opportunity for the Argentines to take advantage of a decent team whose recent form leaves a lot to be desired. I cannot predict the outcome on this one.
If we get to Nadal v. del Potro, that will be exciting. Nadal's high bounces and spin don't bother the 6'6" Argentine as much as other players, but I still don't see delPo winning this. Nadal in four sets. Point to Spain.
If there is a fifth rubber and it is Ferrer v. Monaco, then that's an easy choice: Ferrer gets to be the hero and finish a great year on an unbelievable high. But I cannot imagine that Tito Vazquez would pin the country's hopes on Monaco, despite his good form and recent win over the Spaniard. I have to think he'd bring in Nalbandian, himself a former French Open semifinalist. Nevertheless I still don't see Argentina getting that point. Experience counts in these situations, which is why Nalbandian could be the better choice, but form matters, too, and I think Ferrer's relentlessness will wear down Nalbandian. Point to Spain.
This tie could easily end 3-2, but in the best of situations, I don't see Argentina getting three points here. I can see delPo edging Ferrer and the Argentines winning doubles, but I don't see anyone getting a point against Rafa, nor do I see Monaco or Nalbandian beating Ferrer in a decider. Rafa may not have had the best year, is admittedly tired and has taken some gut checks to his confidence. But you know what? Competing with your teammates on the sidelines is a different deal and with all due respect to the Argentines, it's not Djokovic on the other side of the net.
My prediction: Spain wins its fifth title, 3-1.
Friday, June 3, 2011
Semifinal preview
Whereas the women's tournament is a free-for-all shoot out, the top four men's seeds have advanced to the semifinals of this year's French Open. Nadal will square off against Murray, then Djokovic will face Federer.
Sweet.
Though it hardly needs to be reaffirmed who are the four best players in the world, this is a powerful statement for the world of men's tennis. The order shifts from time to time, but these four continue to separate themselves from the rest of the pack.
This is exactly what's expected of the top four in a Grand Slam, and in this particular case, you cannot ask for better match ups.
Murray, the only major-less of the group, is the surprise of the tournamen. Murray has now made the semifinals or better of all four majors, something I'm not sure I ever thought he'd be able to claim.
Normally I would not give the Scot a chance in hell to beat Nadal on clay. He is clearly the underdog against the five-time champion, but Nadal has not definitely not been on the top of his game throughout the tournament. Murray has earned some major credibility points in the last couple of months. He came closest of anyone to beating Novak Djokovic in a terrific match in Rome, and prevailed in some tough matches in Paris despite a torn ligament in his ankle. I think Murray would have to play the match of his life to knock off Nadal, but if he can simply maintain the form he's shown all week, he could definitely take a set or two. Nadal did not look right until a nice straight sets win over Soderling in the quarterfinals. He might be hitting his stride just at the right time but if there's any drop off, look out.
The more intriguing match is definitely Djokovic against Federer. The Serb, who is still undefeated in 2011, has marched through the draw mostly untroubled as everyone expected him to do. As though he needed more to go his way, his quarterfinal opponent Fabio Fognini disappointingly withdrew from their match with an injury. So Djokovic has not played since Sunday, though I seriously doubt that rust will be an issue. Djokovic is experienced enough to handle it and he's shown that he's mentally tough enough to stay focused despite a long layoff in the middle of a Grand Slam. Federer, on the other hand, has stayed totally under the radar but is the only semifinalist not to have lost a set. Certainly, Djokovic is two steps above any of the other opponents he's faced thus far, but there are worse things than entering a really difficult match with your game working on all cylinders.
Djokovic clearly has the edge, having beaten Federer in all three matches they've played this year. Odd to say this, but it would be an upset if Federer were to get the win here, which I think would have to happen in five sets. Before this year, Federer could remain steadfast in his game and expect Djokovic to falter. No more. If Federer is to win this match he has to be considerably more aggressive than he typically plays. Federer's normal style of working a point and waiting for the perfect shot to hit simply won't work against Djokovic. The longer a rally goes, the more it favors Djokovic who can also unexpectedly hit a winner from anywhere on court. Federer can put his foot on the accelerator to close out a set, but whether he can maintain going toe-to-toe from the baseline with the fitter and faster Djokovic in a best of five is another issue.
All that being said, it's Federer. It's a rare Grand Slam semifinal where he is the underdog and has no obvious advantages over his opponent. I don't expect that the occasion of the moment will have much effect on Djokovic. But you cannot count out experience.
Here's hoping for a couple of grudge matches.
Sweet.
Though it hardly needs to be reaffirmed who are the four best players in the world, this is a powerful statement for the world of men's tennis. The order shifts from time to time, but these four continue to separate themselves from the rest of the pack.
This is exactly what's expected of the top four in a Grand Slam, and in this particular case, you cannot ask for better match ups.
Murray, the only major-less of the group, is the surprise of the tournamen. Murray has now made the semifinals or better of all four majors, something I'm not sure I ever thought he'd be able to claim.
Normally I would not give the Scot a chance in hell to beat Nadal on clay. He is clearly the underdog against the five-time champion, but Nadal has not definitely not been on the top of his game throughout the tournament. Murray has earned some major credibility points in the last couple of months. He came closest of anyone to beating Novak Djokovic in a terrific match in Rome, and prevailed in some tough matches in Paris despite a torn ligament in his ankle. I think Murray would have to play the match of his life to knock off Nadal, but if he can simply maintain the form he's shown all week, he could definitely take a set or two. Nadal did not look right until a nice straight sets win over Soderling in the quarterfinals. He might be hitting his stride just at the right time but if there's any drop off, look out.
The more intriguing match is definitely Djokovic against Federer. The Serb, who is still undefeated in 2011, has marched through the draw mostly untroubled as everyone expected him to do. As though he needed more to go his way, his quarterfinal opponent Fabio Fognini disappointingly withdrew from their match with an injury. So Djokovic has not played since Sunday, though I seriously doubt that rust will be an issue. Djokovic is experienced enough to handle it and he's shown that he's mentally tough enough to stay focused despite a long layoff in the middle of a Grand Slam. Federer, on the other hand, has stayed totally under the radar but is the only semifinalist not to have lost a set. Certainly, Djokovic is two steps above any of the other opponents he's faced thus far, but there are worse things than entering a really difficult match with your game working on all cylinders.
Djokovic clearly has the edge, having beaten Federer in all three matches they've played this year. Odd to say this, but it would be an upset if Federer were to get the win here, which I think would have to happen in five sets. Before this year, Federer could remain steadfast in his game and expect Djokovic to falter. No more. If Federer is to win this match he has to be considerably more aggressive than he typically plays. Federer's normal style of working a point and waiting for the perfect shot to hit simply won't work against Djokovic. The longer a rally goes, the more it favors Djokovic who can also unexpectedly hit a winner from anywhere on court. Federer can put his foot on the accelerator to close out a set, but whether he can maintain going toe-to-toe from the baseline with the fitter and faster Djokovic in a best of five is another issue.
All that being said, it's Federer. It's a rare Grand Slam semifinal where he is the underdog and has no obvious advantages over his opponent. I don't expect that the occasion of the moment will have much effect on Djokovic. But you cannot count out experience.
Here's hoping for a couple of grudge matches.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
French Open round 1 summary
The opening round of the year's second Grand Slam was relatively straightforward, but as always, there were a few surprises.
Of no surprise was the easy passage of Novak Djokovic over Thiemo De Bakker in three lopsided sets. Other top players who had little trouble were Ferrer, Tsonga, Youzhny, Baghdatis and Troicki. Federer took care of troublesome Feliciano Lopez pretty solidly, winning a third-set tiebreak.
There were two big upsets in the first round that I absolutely did not see coming. Both 2010 semifinalist Tomas Berdych and 2010 quarterfinalist/recent Nice champion Nicolas Almagro both lost after winning the first two sets convincingly. Berdych lost 9-7 in the fifth to a french qualifier while Almagro lost two tough tiebreaks and 6-4 in the fifth. Not that one way is particularly better than the other. Both losses are major mental breakdowns for two players who have had very good success at this tournament. As though Murray's quarter wasn't already pretty smooth, Almagro and Canadian Milos Raonic are already out. Along with Berdych, Marin Cilic lost in straight sets, results that really make Djokovic's quarter easier.
Other results: Murray, Soderling, Melzer, Verdasco, Wawrinka, Monfils, Gasquet, del Potro, Bellucci, Davydenko, Fish, Querrey, Tipsarevic, Simon, Dolgopolov are all through. Verdasco beat Monaco in four sets, but it was a little dicey as he led 6-2, 5-2 before pulling out the second set, 7-5. Ernests Gulbis lost in straights--which now makes six straight first-round exits at Grand Slams.
Certainly the match of the opening round was Rafael Nadal versus John Isner. I did not give the big man that much of a chance to challenge but he used that booming serve to help him win two tiebreaks and take a 2-1 sets advantage. One would expect Nadal to turn the screws deep into the only fifth set he's ever played at Roland Garros, but it wasn't until the very end that it became clear that Nadal would get the edge. Despite the scare, I would imagine that the five-time champion will rebound with a shellacking in the next round.
Until round two!
Of no surprise was the easy passage of Novak Djokovic over Thiemo De Bakker in three lopsided sets. Other top players who had little trouble were Ferrer, Tsonga, Youzhny, Baghdatis and Troicki. Federer took care of troublesome Feliciano Lopez pretty solidly, winning a third-set tiebreak.
There were two big upsets in the first round that I absolutely did not see coming. Both 2010 semifinalist Tomas Berdych and 2010 quarterfinalist/recent Nice champion Nicolas Almagro both lost after winning the first two sets convincingly. Berdych lost 9-7 in the fifth to a french qualifier while Almagro lost two tough tiebreaks and 6-4 in the fifth. Not that one way is particularly better than the other. Both losses are major mental breakdowns for two players who have had very good success at this tournament. As though Murray's quarter wasn't already pretty smooth, Almagro and Canadian Milos Raonic are already out. Along with Berdych, Marin Cilic lost in straight sets, results that really make Djokovic's quarter easier.
Other results: Murray, Soderling, Melzer, Verdasco, Wawrinka, Monfils, Gasquet, del Potro, Bellucci, Davydenko, Fish, Querrey, Tipsarevic, Simon, Dolgopolov are all through. Verdasco beat Monaco in four sets, but it was a little dicey as he led 6-2, 5-2 before pulling out the second set, 7-5. Ernests Gulbis lost in straights--which now makes six straight first-round exits at Grand Slams.
Certainly the match of the opening round was Rafael Nadal versus John Isner. I did not give the big man that much of a chance to challenge but he used that booming serve to help him win two tiebreaks and take a 2-1 sets advantage. One would expect Nadal to turn the screws deep into the only fifth set he's ever played at Roland Garros, but it wasn't until the very end that it became clear that Nadal would get the edge. Despite the scare, I would imagine that the five-time champion will rebound with a shellacking in the next round.
Until round two!
Friday, May 20, 2011
French Open preview
Every major on the tennis calendar is hotly anticipated but the potential story lines flood the 2011 French Open, which starts on Sunday.
Certainly at the top of the list is the man of the moment in the world of sport, Novak Djokovic. Riding a 37-match winning streak and on the heels of four straight victories over Rafael Nadal in Masters 1000 finals, two on clay, he has to be considered the favorite to pick up his first title at Roland Garros. His best result were two semifinal appearances, both of which he lost to, who else, Nadal. But between his diet, fitness, lethal play on court and his unfailing confidence, no one seems to be in a better position to knock off the defending champion heading into the tournament. They are appropriately on opposite sides of the draw, so they could only meet in a final. No disrespect to Federer, but a Nadal-Djokovic final on clay has some serious potential to be a legendary match. By the way, the path to number one is entirely in his hands. No matter how he does, if Nadal does not win the title, Djokovic takes over the top ranking--a deserved reward for his terrific success.
As a sidenote, Sports Illustrated did a lovely profile on the young Serb (he turns 24 on Sunday), focusing less on the streak itself but more on the proud Serbian behind it.
That being said, in six appearances at Roland Garros, Rafa Nadal has only lost once. Twice in his five title runs, he has won without dropping a set, including last year. But his convincing losses to Djokovic has relegated Nadal to the role of co-favorite. Both Djokovic and Nadal are too classy to trash talk each other. Nadal has conceded that he's not the best player in the world anymore, whatever the ranking currently says, and Djokovic has said that his two victories in Madrid and Rome pales in comparison to what Nadal has achieved over the past several years. Both are accurate statements. Nevertheless, Djokovic has turned tennis logic on its head and, strangely enough, Nadal has something to prove.
Speaking of weird tennis logic, if world number three Roger Federer were to somehow pick up his second French Open title this year, it would be an upset. With so much focus shifted to Nadal and Djokovic, Federer lurks in the shadows as a dark horse. Could he win the title, potentially beating both Djokovic and Nadal? Eh, yeah, but his form doesn't suggest he's really in a position to do so. I don't think anyone is. He'd have to kick it into another gear we haven't seen since he won the World Tour Finals in London last year. But he is a former champion, so who knows?
Normally I wouldn't think twice about Andy Murray on clay, but the Scot can definitely make some noise this year. Of all the hopeful challengers to Djokovic's invincibility, it was Murray, oddly enough, who came closest to knocking off the Serb in Rome. He has been battling some injuries, but if he stays healthy, he could definitely go deep into week two.
Of course, one cannot overlook the two-time defending finalist, Robin Soderling. The Swede is in Nadal's quarter of the draw and, until further notice, is still the only man to have beaten Nadal at this major. Others to look out for include David Ferrer, Nicolas Almagro and last year's semifinalists Tomas Berdych and Jurgen Melzer.
Anyway, the intrigue starts right from the beginning, as many of the top players have some tricky first-round matches. The draws, in general, are not particularly kind to any of the top four.
Nadal faces American John Isner. I expect Nadal to come through that in straight sets, but you never know with Isner. The clay slows down his booming serve considerably, and Nadal can pretty easily move the big man around the court. But Isner is not a qualifier and Nadal will surely take the challenge seriously. Soderling is the other big fish in that part of the draw, which also includes Davydenko, Baghdatis, Verdasco, Monaco and Ljubicic.
Djokovic shouldn't have any trouble in his first two rounds, but Juan Martin del Potro looms as a potential third-round opponent. A healthy delPo would make that a nail-biter but it wasn't even definite that the Argentine would play in Paris up until a few days ago. I think he has the potential to play very well, but the longer than match goes, the more it becomes and issue of fitness which favors Djokovic. 2010 semifinalist Tomas Berdych also looms, as do Gasquet, Youzhny, Cilic and Bellucci.
Federer has to be doing a facepalm at the draw, as he faces off against Spaniard Feliciano Lopez in the first round. Remember that Lopez came achingly close to beating Federer earlier this year in Rome. A best of five is a different animal, but Federer had better have his game on point. It gets worse from there: Ferrer, Tipsarevic, Tsonga, Wawrinka and Monfils are all in his section.
Even if Murray is healthy, his draw could be a minefield. Rising stars Milos Raonic and Alexandr Dolgopolov are hiding in there, as is 2010 semifinalist Jurgen Melzer, Almagro, and Serbian Davis Cup hero Viktor Troicki.
First round popcorn matches:
Certainly, keep an eye out for Federer v. Lopez--that is no cakewalk. Lleyton Hewitt against Albert Montanes could be very entertaining, as could Nadal v. Isner.
My most likely candidate for a first-round "upset" is Fernando Verdasco versus Argentine Juan Monaco. Last year, the Madrileno arrived in Paris following a terrific clay court season, including a title in Barcelona. Then he crashed out in the fourth round to Almagro. A year later, Verdasco arrives in Paris on the heels of a months-long slump, ranked outside the top ten, and making headlines for his attitude rather than his play. Monaco hasn't exactly been lighting it up this season but for a player who's struggling with his confidence, there's nothing more dangerous than a player who has nothing to lose.
Juan Martin del Potro against Ivo Karlovic could be interesting, if for no other reason than to see how the big Argentine is feeling. Having to withstand the barrage of big serves from his even bigger opponent could be a good test, even though the advantage is firmly delPo's once the ball is in play.
With any one tournament, you don't want to overstate its implications in the world of tennis. But it cannot be denied that the tide has shifted away from Federer/Nadal and their terrific rivalry, and more toward Nadal/Djokovic and the latter's utter dominance this year. Not since Federer and Nadal completed their ascents to the top ranking has one event so strongly symbolized a coronation. Djokovic is the frontrunner to win this title, a previously unthinkable concept, and to become the number one player for the first time in his career. It would be his greatest triumph to date. A lot has to happen before we get to that point, but anyone who has watched his growth this year believes--rightly so--that he has a legitimate chance to do it.
Stay tuned!
Certainly at the top of the list is the man of the moment in the world of sport, Novak Djokovic. Riding a 37-match winning streak and on the heels of four straight victories over Rafael Nadal in Masters 1000 finals, two on clay, he has to be considered the favorite to pick up his first title at Roland Garros. His best result were two semifinal appearances, both of which he lost to, who else, Nadal. But between his diet, fitness, lethal play on court and his unfailing confidence, no one seems to be in a better position to knock off the defending champion heading into the tournament. They are appropriately on opposite sides of the draw, so they could only meet in a final. No disrespect to Federer, but a Nadal-Djokovic final on clay has some serious potential to be a legendary match. By the way, the path to number one is entirely in his hands. No matter how he does, if Nadal does not win the title, Djokovic takes over the top ranking--a deserved reward for his terrific success.
As a sidenote, Sports Illustrated did a lovely profile on the young Serb (he turns 24 on Sunday), focusing less on the streak itself but more on the proud Serbian behind it.
That being said, in six appearances at Roland Garros, Rafa Nadal has only lost once. Twice in his five title runs, he has won without dropping a set, including last year. But his convincing losses to Djokovic has relegated Nadal to the role of co-favorite. Both Djokovic and Nadal are too classy to trash talk each other. Nadal has conceded that he's not the best player in the world anymore, whatever the ranking currently says, and Djokovic has said that his two victories in Madrid and Rome pales in comparison to what Nadal has achieved over the past several years. Both are accurate statements. Nevertheless, Djokovic has turned tennis logic on its head and, strangely enough, Nadal has something to prove.
Speaking of weird tennis logic, if world number three Roger Federer were to somehow pick up his second French Open title this year, it would be an upset. With so much focus shifted to Nadal and Djokovic, Federer lurks in the shadows as a dark horse. Could he win the title, potentially beating both Djokovic and Nadal? Eh, yeah, but his form doesn't suggest he's really in a position to do so. I don't think anyone is. He'd have to kick it into another gear we haven't seen since he won the World Tour Finals in London last year. But he is a former champion, so who knows?
Normally I wouldn't think twice about Andy Murray on clay, but the Scot can definitely make some noise this year. Of all the hopeful challengers to Djokovic's invincibility, it was Murray, oddly enough, who came closest to knocking off the Serb in Rome. He has been battling some injuries, but if he stays healthy, he could definitely go deep into week two.
Of course, one cannot overlook the two-time defending finalist, Robin Soderling. The Swede is in Nadal's quarter of the draw and, until further notice, is still the only man to have beaten Nadal at this major. Others to look out for include David Ferrer, Nicolas Almagro and last year's semifinalists Tomas Berdych and Jurgen Melzer.
Anyway, the intrigue starts right from the beginning, as many of the top players have some tricky first-round matches. The draws, in general, are not particularly kind to any of the top four.
Nadal faces American John Isner. I expect Nadal to come through that in straight sets, but you never know with Isner. The clay slows down his booming serve considerably, and Nadal can pretty easily move the big man around the court. But Isner is not a qualifier and Nadal will surely take the challenge seriously. Soderling is the other big fish in that part of the draw, which also includes Davydenko, Baghdatis, Verdasco, Monaco and Ljubicic.
Djokovic shouldn't have any trouble in his first two rounds, but Juan Martin del Potro looms as a potential third-round opponent. A healthy delPo would make that a nail-biter but it wasn't even definite that the Argentine would play in Paris up until a few days ago. I think he has the potential to play very well, but the longer than match goes, the more it becomes and issue of fitness which favors Djokovic. 2010 semifinalist Tomas Berdych also looms, as do Gasquet, Youzhny, Cilic and Bellucci.
Federer has to be doing a facepalm at the draw, as he faces off against Spaniard Feliciano Lopez in the first round. Remember that Lopez came achingly close to beating Federer earlier this year in Rome. A best of five is a different animal, but Federer had better have his game on point. It gets worse from there: Ferrer, Tipsarevic, Tsonga, Wawrinka and Monfils are all in his section.
Even if Murray is healthy, his draw could be a minefield. Rising stars Milos Raonic and Alexandr Dolgopolov are hiding in there, as is 2010 semifinalist Jurgen Melzer, Almagro, and Serbian Davis Cup hero Viktor Troicki.
First round popcorn matches:
Certainly, keep an eye out for Federer v. Lopez--that is no cakewalk. Lleyton Hewitt against Albert Montanes could be very entertaining, as could Nadal v. Isner.
My most likely candidate for a first-round "upset" is Fernando Verdasco versus Argentine Juan Monaco. Last year, the Madrileno arrived in Paris following a terrific clay court season, including a title in Barcelona. Then he crashed out in the fourth round to Almagro. A year later, Verdasco arrives in Paris on the heels of a months-long slump, ranked outside the top ten, and making headlines for his attitude rather than his play. Monaco hasn't exactly been lighting it up this season but for a player who's struggling with his confidence, there's nothing more dangerous than a player who has nothing to lose.
Juan Martin del Potro against Ivo Karlovic could be interesting, if for no other reason than to see how the big Argentine is feeling. Having to withstand the barrage of big serves from his even bigger opponent could be a good test, even though the advantage is firmly delPo's once the ball is in play.
With any one tournament, you don't want to overstate its implications in the world of tennis. But it cannot be denied that the tide has shifted away from Federer/Nadal and their terrific rivalry, and more toward Nadal/Djokovic and the latter's utter dominance this year. Not since Federer and Nadal completed their ascents to the top ranking has one event so strongly symbolized a coronation. Djokovic is the frontrunner to win this title, a previously unthinkable concept, and to become the number one player for the first time in his career. It would be his greatest triumph to date. A lot has to happen before we get to that point, but anyone who has watched his growth this year believes--rightly so--that he has a legitimate chance to do it.
Stay tuned!
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